By Mark Kneubuhl
Special to LIVE!
August 3, 2007

The short answer is no… not yet anyway. However, examining this question, one cannot ignore a growing crack in the otherwise solid Republican armor that envelopes San Angelo, Texas.

The repercussions of a trend toward the Democratic Party in 2008 in a west Texas town may have far-reaching consequences that certainly will change face of state politics, maybe for years to come.

Statewide, the answer is more apparent. Although depending upon with whom you talk, the opinion is often slanted. More and more Republicans are jumping the fence, if not to the Democratic Party, then to the Independent or Libertarian parties. Or Ron Paul.

Another growing method of choice is candidacy, instead of party affiliation, in which conservative Texans can have their cake and eat it too. “I vote for the person, not the party,” is a common mantra around here.

“The most detrimental facet of our political system is the political parties themselves,” said City Councilman Emilio Perez-Jimenez. “I used to belong to a party, but now I look at all candidates and choose the one that I think will do the best job.”

In Houston, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, President Bush’s approval rating in most departments is much closer to the national average. But analysts are being careful where it concerns Texas, not to confuse the disenchantment of the GOP with the abandoning of conservative ideals. But this, according to Tom Green County Democratic Party Chair Linda Shoemaker, is one and the same.

“He’s [Bush] not adhering to Republican values, which is painful for his supporters in this part of the world,” Shoemaker said. “In addition, the president was dishonest with the people in his decision to go to war in the first place, I think people are seeing that now.”

Local GOP Chair Russ Duerstine called Shoemaker’s comment “purely insane. The president is simply not a deceptive person.”

The head GOP official echoed the same sentiments about Vice President Dick Cheney. “He has the clearest way of explaining some very toxic subjects… sometimes too clear, which is why he’s kept away from the media.”

But the local Democrats disagree. “Dick Cheney has been a disaster for the president,” Shoemaker told LIVE! “We’ve been duped and voters now need to be vigilant and careful when they go to the polls in the upcoming general election.

Other local Democrats have cited various reasons for the demise of our Commander-In-Chief, from the war to immigration to even the basic question of competency.

The GOP sees it a different way: “Bush’s approval rating, in my opinion, has dropped because he didn’t do enough [in Iraq]. Going over there and trying to root out the terrorists has made him a hero where conservatives are concerned,” said Duerstine.

History

When asked point blank about the possibility of San Angelo turning blue, many residents reacted as if they were being asked to join Al Qaeda. But Texans sometimes have a selective memory. A large percentage of older republicans today would have been Democrats in the days of Sam Rayburn and Lyndon Johnson.

Texas had been voting Democrat since 1928 with few exceptions, such as Eisenhower 1952 and 1956, when then-Governor Allan Shivers crossed the fence and endorsed him because he was a war hero. Whether liberal or conservative, Texans love a war hero and backed up their governor.

Of the 181 members of the 1977 Texas legislature, there were only 15 Republicans. It was then that the late great liberal Texas columnist Molly Ivins called the capital, “the national laboratory for bad governance.” Maybe Democrats were too conservative back then.

Texas has in the past been both conservative and Democratic, something that today would be considered an oxymoron. Political soul-searching took place during the Nixon era, Texans backed Carter in 1976, and then along came Republican Ronald Reagan, who won this state by a landslide in 1980. The state has been predominately red ever since.

Turning Blue

It’s been referred to as the “Invisible Giant,” in regard to the potential of the Hispanic vote to change the face of politics in Texas. Nationally, this group is predominately Democratic, but in west Texas, best estimates give them an arguable 50/50 split, depending on who you talk to.

San Angelo Police Chief Tim Vasquez commented on the potential of Hispanics to change the face of politics in San Angelo. “Generally they lean to the Democratic side, but they’re no different than any other minority group in America in that they don’t get out in large numbers and vote.”

Karl Rove called it a “vote that is up for grabs.” Bush grabbed his share in 1998, getting an impressive 49% of the Texas’ Latino vote during his victorious and final race for the governor’s office.

San Angelo Mayor J.W. Lown agreed with another common belief that GOP Hispanics are more organized than their Democratic counterparts. “But they are also very much ‘issue driven’. If it doesn’t affect them, fewer of them go to the polls.”

The mayor went on to talk about lackluster attendance in local elections: “Of the 50,000 registered voters, about 7,000, or about 12%, go to the polls. We had a record turnout last May of 10,000 votes cast.” That number equates to about 20% of the total electorate.

President of the Concho Valley Republican Women, Anita Betty, told LIVE! about past outreach projects in an attempt to attract more Hispanics to the polls. “They get together when they have to but are generally not cohesive. We’ve tried things that don’t seem to work unless it’s about something immediately pertaining to them,” she said

“I’m really worried about this presidential election and I think the economy will be affected,” she added.

Councilman Jimenez told LIVE! that Latinos in general, “like Bush… They’re proud of him as a Texan and they respect the office. We have more [Hispanic] people serving our country, more medals of honor and more fallen sons and daughters… but Latinos are getting tired of war,” the councilman added.

The West Texas Vote

San Angelo, Texas could well be considered Middle America in terms of size, locale and demographics. But politically it’s a bit of an anomaly in that it has never followed the crowd, perhaps a residual effect of the wide open spaces in west Texas and that Texas was once an independent republic.

In the 2000 statewide elections, of candidates seeking office, there were 27 Republicans and 29 Democrats, but there were also 7 Independents, 13 Natural Law candidates and 31 Libertarians: Not exactly the kind of spread one would find in New Hampshire.

“That’s an indication of people being fed up with both sides,” said District 6 Councilwoman Charlotte Farmer. “Politics has not done well for our system of government, while people have forgotten the difference between a ‘politician’ and a ‘statesman’.”

“There is just too much mud-slinging going on. If you want to be entertained, go to the movies,” she added.

GOP Chair Duerstine told LIVE! that his party was not demoralized by national polls and surveys. “When we’re down, we just fight harder,” he said.

When asked how a large Hispanic turnout would affect the political landscape in San Angelo, the councilman for district three, Daniel Cardenas said, “A lot of politicians would be taking Spanish lessons. Politicians go with the flow… the normal greeting of ‘Howdy’ would change to ‘Ola’.”

“Ignoring the Hispanic vote is like saying that you don’t have termites when your house is falling down all around you,” he added.

The 12-year city council veteran went on to explain the difficulties of the average Hispanic in his district. “I spend a lot of time helping my constituents with simple things like getting a building permit, where to get something notarized, things that others take for granted.”

When asked about the war in Iraq and its effect on the Hispanic vote, Cardenas said, “Hispanics, like everyone in the country, support our troops, but yes, they are getting tired of this war, and maybe that is the issue that will get them out to the polls this time.”

The defining issue

There is no consensus in San Angelo as to which issue or policy is the biggest thorn in that elephant-skinned shoe. And the San Angelo Republicans who admit that there is a problem (not all do), say that it is a Bush dilemma and -- at least in this part of the woods -- will not affect GOP membership.

Local attorney Guy Choate told LIVE! that in his opinion, it is more a question of the president’s competency, rather than any particular issue.

“Where his immigration policy and the amnesty issue are concerned, that solution doesn’t lend itself to a bumper sticker, Choate said. “Either way you look at it, there are elements of that problem that we neither have the manpower or the dollars to address.”

Assistant Police Chief Robert Martinez said that he was not convinced that the administration’s immigration policy has had much to do with the president’s popularity. “I’m personally for increased border security for reasons of public safety. I also feel we have to stick with our president and continue to support him.”

Chief Vasquez, echoed those sentiments about border security, only adding, “I don’t like to be an armchair quarterback, especially in politics. If we don’t like something or someone, our time to voice our opinion is on election day.”

The chief also stressed the importance of sticking to more conservative ideals where it concerns homeland security and the threat of terrorism. “A lot of times in the police department, our hands are tied because of liberal ideas, but we need to continue to proactively fight terrorism and not let Al Qaeda come to us.”

And the Iraq war is as hotly contested in San Angelo as it is anywhere in the nation. However, unlike the Vietnam War, both Democrats and Republicans alike have found common ground in supporting the troops. It is on other war-related issues where you find political differentiation.

While many republicans and democrats alike still support the president, they do not lend the same unwavering support for Vice President Dick Cheney. Of the Democrats and Independents’ interviewed, all voiced the opinion that Cheney, for better or for worse, has been an equal partner in this presidency.

“He hasn’t been good for the President,” said Angelo State Department of Government Head Ed Olsen.

Olsen added that the war has become a political football, which he has been opposed to from the start. “It’s now an issue with politicians from both parties speaking out of two sides of their mouth. But fundamentally we have to ask ourselves, ‘what do we do now?’”

Opinion Polls

Several years ago, Karl Rove was also quoted as saying, “And to the degree that more [Hispanics] are going to college and become better educated, it becomes increasingly an even more conservative vote… beneficial to the Republican Party.”

This is in contrast to most polls that clearly show falling GOP membership as a direct function of number of college degrees attained.

LIVE! also carried out its own online poll, and although the number of those who participated was not enough to claim accurate results, those who did overwhelmingly voiced a lack of support for the present administration and the war in Iraq.

The most important poll was one taken some years ago by Luntz Research and Strategic Services. It found that 23% of the 500 polled statewide, considered themselves “Texans” first (before Americans). A spokesperson for the firm noted that “no where in America would you find state identity that high.”

This may explain why Texas doesn’t always follow any particular roadmap. Will Texas return to its Democratic roots? Will the Independent or Libertarian parties continue to gain strength and -- perhaps someday -- become major political players? Or, will a representative number of Texas Hispanics someday decide to get up and go to the polls? Any one of these things could and would change the political landscape of both Texas and the nation as a whole. Ironically, where it concerns this last scenario, most Hispanics don’t realize just how influential and powerful they could be.