National Weather Service Defends Flood Warnings Amid Criticism

KERRVILLE, TX — After flash floods in Texas claimed the lives of at least 82 people over the weekend, the National Weather Service defended its alert system.

While some of have attacked President Donald Trump and staffing cuts he made at the NWS as part of the Department of Government Efficiency, independent meteorologists and a former NWS official said the warnings appear to have been issued in a timely and accurate manner.

The NWS said the alerts gave a lead time of more than three hours before the worst flooding began.

“The forecasting was good. The warnings were good. It’s always about getting people to receive the message,” said meteorologist Chris Vagasky in an interview with NBC.

Other meteorologists agreed that staffing cuts didn’t play a role in the outcome of the deadly floods.

Travis County Judge Andy Brown and Emergency Coordinator Eric Carter both praised the NWS for their efforts.

Vagasky said pinpointing exactly where the worst flooding will occur remains a challenge, particularly in a region like the Texas Hill Country.

“The science just isn’t at that point,” Vagasky said. “Knowing whether that higher amount is going to fall three miles this way or that way has a big impact.

“Severe weather response in the middle of the night is one of the biggest challenges. That’s when we see the most tornado fatalities and the most flooding fatalities. People are asleep. They can’t see the tornado or the water rising. … Did people have their emergency alerts turned on on their phones?” 

Kerrville officials have committed to a full review of their alert systems and processes.

The San Antonio/Austin NWS office is down six employees from its typical full staffing level of 26. In San Angelo, the office is down four employees from its normal number of 23.

Vagasky, who has criticized staffing reduction at the NWS, said he didn't believe better staffing would have prevented the tragedy. 

“Those are important positions that do need to be filled,” he said, but it “probably wasn’t a significant contributor to what happened.”