Concho Valley Playoff Football Previews and Predictions

SAN ANGELO, TX — Here’s a look at our five football teams remaining in the playoffs heading into their games this weekend in the state quarterfinals and semifinals:

Junction (13-0) vs. Shiner (13-0)

You can’t ask for a much better matchup than a couple of undefeated teams in the state quarterfinals. No. 4-ranked Junction hasn’t lost since a 27-0 setback against Shiner last year in this same round. The No. 1-ranked Comanches haven’t lost since they fell just short against Muenster in the Class 2A Division II state final, 36-29. Junction returned the majority of its team from last season, including quarterback Chasen Doyal and head coach Scott Freeman. The Eagles had high expectations and have delivered with the winningest season in program history. Now they have a chance to reach the state semifinals for only the second time. Junction’s 2008 team made a surprise run to the state semis after a third-place finish in district. Shiner has the pedigree with four state titles, while Junction is just three years removed from a two-win season. In that sense, it’s a David vs. Goliath matchup, but this year’s Eagles may just have what it takes to win this game. Shiner has played only five teams with a winning record, and the Comanches had a less-than-impressive 21-14 win over Falls City, which Junction swept this year by dominating scores of 48-0 and 42-13. The Eagles also rose to the occasion last week in a 42-14 win over No. 6 Granger. Both of these teams boast strong defenses. Junction is allowing 8.1 points per game, while Shiner is giving up 11.2 points. This could be a historic win for the Eagles. The game is set for 7 p.m. Friday in Hutto. The winner will meet either No. 3 Bremond or No. 5 Mount Enterprise.

The pick: Junction 21, Shiner 17

Wall (13-0) vs. Idalou (10-3)

Only one team has been within 24 points of No. 2-ranked Wall this year, and that’s the team the Hawks will see at 6 p.m. Friday at San Angelo Stadium in the Class 3A Division II state quarterfinals. Idalou lost to Wall 35-21 when they met back on Oct. 3 in Idalou. The Wildcats were within 21-14 heading into the fourth quarter before Wall finally pulled away. Idalou hasn’t lost since that game and is coming off a 24-17 upset of No. 6 Canadian last week. Idalou also gave Wall trouble last year. Despite the Hawks winning 33-10, they turned the ball over six times in the game. Idalou has allowed only 12 points per game during its seven-game winning streak. Wall can counter with an exceptional defense that has given up an average of six points per game. The Hawks have allowed only two touchdowns in the last six weeks. Both of these teams have high-powered offenses. Idalou is averaging 39.5 points, while Wall is averaging 50. It feels like Idalou is going to keep this one close again, but this Wall team has been on a mission to bring home the program’s first state title, and we don’t think the Hawks’ season ends this week. The winner will advance to play either No. 3 Gunter or Leonard.

The pick: Wall 31, Idalou 21

Water Valley (13-0) vs. Rankin (11-2)

No. 2-ranked Water Valley is back in the Class 1A Division I state semifinals for the second consecutive year with a chance to reach its first-ever state final. The Wildcats will have to get past one of the state’s better six-man programs which is also looking for its first state title. Water Valley had no problem with Rankin in a 68-20 win earlier this season, but the Red Devils haven’t lost since then, winning seven in a row. They’ve taken down No. 8 Borden County and No. 5 Whiteface during their playoff run. The 50-39 win over Borden County was particularly impressive considering they lost to the Coyotes 74-44 earlier in the year. Water Valley has been a wrecking ball this season with one big win after another. The Wildcats found themselves in a close game for the first time last week against Robert Lee, but they played their best when it mattered most, coming up with a clutch goal-line stand in the final minute of the third quarter before pulling away for a 50-28 win. Rankin has undoubtedly improved since its first meeting with Water Valley, but it seems unlikely the Red Devils will be able to turn the tables to the extent they can upset the Wildcats. Water Valley is loaded with all-state talent and a head coach in Trey Sisco who won a state title with Sterling City in 2020. This team has seemed destined for the state final all year long. Water Valley and Rankin will play at 5 p.m. Saturday at San Angelo Stadium. The winner will play No. 1 Gordon or Union Hill in the state championship.

The pick: Water Valley 58, Rankin 30

Richland Springs (11-1) vs. Strawn (12-1)

Two of the most storied six-man programs in Texas will collide once again when they meet at 5 p.m. Saturday at Stephenville’s Art Briles Stadium in the Class 1A Division II state semifinals. Richland Springs has won nine state titles, while Strawn has won five, and they’ve often had to go through each other. Both teams have only one loss this year, each time coming against Gordon, the No. 1 team in 1A Division I. Richland Springs is ranked No. 3 in 1A D-II, and Strawn is No. 6. The Coyotes returned most of last year’s team, including all-state players like Cohen Ethridge and Billy Perry, while Strawn returned all of its starters. This is also a matchup of two of the state’s greatest six-man minds. Strawn’s Dewayne Lee has overseen all of his program’s state titles. Harley Ethridge was the offensive coordinator for Richland Springs during multiple title runs, and he was the head coach of Follett when it reached a state final in 2012. Richland Springs has impressive wins over May and Oglesby, the latter of which was a 72-22 win last week. Strawn is coming off a 46-0 win over Three Way. The winner of this game will play No. 1 Jayton or No. 2 Klondike in the state final.

The pick: Richland Springs 54, Strawn 52

Mason (10-3) vs. Refugio (12-0)

The Mason Punchers have won nine games in a row since a 1-3 start, but their playoff run faces a monumental challenge this week against No. 1 Refugio in the Class 2A Division I state quarterfinals at 7 p.m. Thursday at San Antonio’s Heroes Stadium. These programs have combined for six state titles — four by Refugio and two by Mason — and they’ve had several playoff clashes in the state quarterfinals over the years. Refugio has spent all season ranked No. 1 in the state, and the Bobcats vanquished No. 2 Ganado last week, 40-13. Refugio is allowing 12 points per game, and Mason will have to figure out a way to get past that if it hopes to pull the upset. During their winning streak, the Punchers had held every opponent to 15 points or less before they found themselves in a 41-37 shootout last week with Kenedy. Mason returned only two starters on each side of the ball from last year, and the Punchers had to adapt to a new head coach in Wade Griffin and a new spread offense after years in the Wing T. They’ve clearly found their footing now, but will it be enough to topple Refugio? The winner of this game will face unranked Joaquin or San Augustine.

The pick: Refugio 31, Mason 17